Five years. Five completely different markets. The same zip codes β Clyde Hill, Medina, Yarrow Point, Enatai, Downtown Bellevue β have cycled from peak overbid frenzy, through a rate-shock correction, into tentative recovery, and now into the bifurcated reality of 2026. Here is what that full arc looks like in data.
The Full Five-Year Data
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transactions | 110 | 66 | 109 | 114 | 76 |
| Median Sold Price | $4,400,000 | $3,985,000 | $3,915,000 | $3,300,000 | $4,075,000 |
| Avg. Sold Price | $4,683,476 | $5,194,218 | $4,504,664 | $3,853,738 | $4,740,455 |
| Avg. Days on Market | 13 | 69 | 43 | 26 | 56 |
| SP % of List Price | 104.28% | 95.61% | 99.31% | 100.14% | 97.45% |
| SP % of Orig. List | 103.96% | 93.39% | 98.49% | 99.50% | 95.84% |
| Avg. Sq Ft Sold | 3,997 | 4,214 | 3,979 | 3,303 | 3,985 |
| High Sale | $11.4M | $20.0M | $21.3M | $12.5M | $17.4M |
| Low Sale | $2.00M | $2.08M | $2.00M | $2.00M | $2.05M |
Green = best of the five years. Red = worst. Gold = 2026 current.
2022 β The Peak of Everything
The 2022 YTD data captures the absolute top of the market cycle. At 104.28% SP/LP, buyers in Area 520 were routinely paying 10β15% over asking in bidding wars. Average days on market was just 13 β a well-priced home was gone before most buyers had a chance to schedule a second showing. 110 transactions closed in just the first five months.
The median sold price of $4.40M represented a market supercharged by three years of near-zero interest rates, pandemic-era wealth accumulation, and tech equity that had compounded dramatically. The psychological driver was scarcity and urgency β buyers genuinely feared being permanently priced out if they didn't act immediately and aggressively.
The critical caveat: The 2022 data covers JanuaryβMay β the very tail end of the low-rate environment. The Fed began its most aggressive tightening cycle in 40 years in March 2022. By October 2022, the 30-year fixed had crossed 7%. The market buyers were transacting in during spring 2022 was about to change completely.
2023 β The Rate Shock Correction
The 2023 data tells the correction story in stark numbers. Volume collapsed from 110 to 66 transactions β a 40% drop. Average days on market exploded to 69 days. SP/LP crashed to 95.61% β sellers who had priced for 2022 were being forced to negotiate 4β5% off asking just to close.
The median sold price dropped to $3.985M from $4.40M. But the average sold price actually rose to $5.19M β a statistical artifact driven by extraordinary ultra-luxury transactions including a $20M sale and a $38M off-market deal in Medina. The median tells the true story: the broad market corrected meaningfully.
What happened? The Fed raised rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023. The 30-year fixed went from 3% to over 7.5%. Even in a cash-heavy luxury market like Area 520, this had real effects. Buyers who needed mortgages disappeared. Equity-rich buyers grew cautious. Sellers who had bought or built at peak prices found themselves unable to clear the market without real concessions.
2024 β The Tentative Recovery
2024 showed the market finding its footing β but not its old confidence. Volume recovered strongly to 109 transactions, nearly matching 2022. Days on market improved to 43 from 69. SP/LP climbed back to 99.31% β sellers were getting close to asking price again, even if not over it.
The median held at $3.915M β essentially flat with 2023's $3.985M. The broad market hadn't appreciated, but it had stabilized. The buyer pool had recalibrated: rate-sensitive buyers remained sidelined, but the equity-rich and cash buyers who define Area 520's upper tier had re-engaged.
2024 was also the year ultra-luxury clearly separated from the rest. A $21.25M sale set a new high for the period. The divergence between the $2Mβ$5M tier (rate-sensitive, still cautious) and the $8M+ tier (largely cash, largely insulated) became structurally visible in the data for the first time.
2025 β The Paradox Year
The 2025 YTD data is the most counterintuitive in the five-year window. Volume hit 114 β the highest of any year in this analysis. Days on market improved to 26. SP/LP reached 100.14% β sellers were getting over asking again. By every traditional measure, 2025 looked like a hot market.
But the median sold price was $3.30M β the lowest of any year in the five-year window. How can a market be simultaneously the most active and the least expensive?
The answer is composition. 2025 saw a surge of transactions in the $2Mβ$3.5M range β move-up buyers, tech-adjacent buyers with equity but not unlimited capital. The ultra-luxury end ($8M+) went quiet. Volume was high, but the mix of homes selling had shifted decisively downmarket within Area 520. The median fell not because prices dropped, but because a different β and less expensive β mix of homes transacted.
2026 β Where We Are Now
The 2026 YTD data brings the five-year story to its current chapter. Volume is down sharply to 76 β a 33% drop from 2025's high. Days on market have doubled to 56. SP/LP has slipped to 97.45%. And the median has rebounded to $4.075M β the highest since 2022.
But this rebound should be interpreted carefully. It isn't broad-based appreciation. It reflects the return of the higher-end buyer β equity-rich, often cash, deploying inherited capital or tech liquidity β trading up into larger homes in Medina, Clyde Hill, and The Points. The 2026 buyer pool is wealthy and selective. Transaction count is low precisely because everyone else is sitting out.
The 2026 market is not the 2022 market wearing different clothes. In 2022, everyone was buying. In 2026, only the wealthiest and most liquid buyers are transacting β producing higher median prices but dramatically lower volume and a market accessible to a shrinking slice of the population.
The Five-Year Narrative in Four Lines
What the Five-Year Arc Tells Sellers Today
If you bought in 2021 or early 2022 and have been waiting for the market to return to peak conditions, the data offers a nuanced message: the 2026 median is still 7.3% below the 2022 YTD peak. The market has not fully recovered in price, even though it appears robust on the surface.
If you bought in 2023 or 2024 β the correction years β your equity position is strong. Those were the best buying vintages of the five-year window. Buyers who transacted at 95β99% of list when sellers were finally negotiating are sitting on meaningful appreciation entering 2026.
If you're selling today, you're in a market that rewards patience and precision. The 97.45% SP/LP means you will negotiate. The 56-day average DOM means your home will sit longer than it did in 2022 or 2025. But the buyers who are active in 2026 are serious and qualified β they're just not accepting prices that aren't justified by current comps.
What the Five-Year Arc Tells Buyers Today
The 2023 window β 95.61% SP/LP, 69-day average DOM, sellers negotiating deeply β was the single best buying opportunity of the five-year cycle. That window has closed. But 2026, at 97.45% SP/LP and 56-day average DOM, is the second-best negotiating environment since then.
For buyers with equity and optionality, the structural case for owning in Area 520 remains compelling. Even through the sharpest correction in a generation β 2023 β the median never fell below $3.985M. The floor has proven resilient. The ceiling has continued to expand, with the high sale rising from $11.4M in 2022 to $21.3M in 2024.
The buyers who study this five-year arc and act accordingly β targeting the 45+ day listings, negotiating from a position of data, focusing on structurally scarce product in Medina, Clyde Hill, and The Points β are positioning themselves well for the next turn in the cycle.
