The Market Shifted.
Know Which Side You're On.
A detailed comparison of 2025 full-year data versus 2026 year-to-date results reveals a market in genuine transition β prices are up, but the rules of engagement have changed. Here's what the numbers actually say.
2025 vs. 2026 β What Changed
The headline is deceptive: prices are higher in 2026. But a closer read of the data tells a more nuanced story. Sellers who priced correctly and prepared their homes properly continued to close at or above list. Those who didn't found themselves in an expanding pile of cancellations.
| Metric | Full Year 2025 | 2026 YTD (JanβJun) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLS Sales (count) | 30 closed | 18 closed | Tracking lower pace |
| Median Sold Price | $4,190,000 | $4,732,500 | β² +13% |
| Avg $/Sq Ft (sold) | $1,189 | $1,096 | βΌ β$93/sqft |
| Average CDOM | 35 days | 58 days | β² +66% longer |
| Sale / List Price (avg) | 99.1% | 95.4% | βΌ β3.7 pts |
| Sale / Original Price (avg) | 98.4% | 93.5% | βΌ β4.9 pts |
| Cancelled Listings | 14 all year | 25 in 6 months | Nearly 3Γ run rate |
| Expired Listings | 6 all year | 5 in 6 months | Elevated pace |
| Off-Market Transactions | 10 (avg $4.3M) | 7 (avg $5.5M) | Higher price quiet deals |
| Highest Sold Price | $12,000,000 | $13,500,000 | β² +12.5% |
Four Things the Data Reveals
Pricing Power Has Shifted
In 2025, the average home sold at 99.1% of list price β nearly full ask. In 2026, that number dropped to 95.4%, meaning buyers are negotiating an average $175,000+ off list on a $4M home. The gap between original list price and final sale price widened even further to 6.5%. Sellers who test the market with aggressive pricing are paying for that experiment with time and concessions.
Cancellations Are the New Canary
Twenty-five listings cancelled in the first six months of 2026 β nearly twice all of 2025's cancellations combined. Several repeat-listed properties appeared multiple times (9901 NE 32nd, 8550 NE 28th, 2411 98th Ave NE, 9808 NE 33rd). Each relisting at a lower price signals sellers who started too high. The market is not forgiving mispriced inventory.
Speed Still Rewards the Prepared
Even in this slower market, well-prepared homes close fast. In 2026, six properties sold within 5 days or less, including one sold in 2 days and several off-market transactions at 100% of asking. The bifurcation is real: correct price + condition = quick sale. Incorrect price = 70β100+ days on market followed by cancellation or a painful reduction.
The $5Mβ$7M Range Is Most Contested
The $5Mβ$7M price band shows the widest gap between seller expectations and buyer behavior. In 2025, properties in this range were selling at or above list. In 2026, several in this band cancelled entirely or required significant reductions to close. The 2026 median sold price of $4.73M reflects buyers anchoring below $5M even as sellers list above it.
The Off-Market Premium: Quiet Money Is Moving
Seven homes sold off-market in 2026 at an average of $5.45 million β all at 100% of asking price. Off-market transactions consistently outperform listed properties on both price certainty and execution speed. In 2025, ten off-market sales averaged $4.3M, also at 100% of ask. The message is consistent: the right buyer relationship eliminates negotiating entirely. This is where private networks and trusted advisors create disproportionate value for sellers who are ready to move without a public listing.
Signals for Buyers & Sellers
The same market produces different opportunities depending on which side of the transaction you're on.
Negotiating Room Has Returned
With the average sale-to-list ratio at 95.4% and 58 days average market time, buyers have leverage they didn't have in 2025. The average buyer in 2026 is saving approximately $250,000 off list price at the median. Extended days on market mean less competing offer pressure and more time to do thorough due diligence. This is the most favorable buying window Clyde Hill has seen in several years.
Failed Listings Create Opportunity
25 cancellations and 5 expirations mean motivated sellers will re-enter the market β often at lower prices, sometimes with improved condition. Properties that failed once typically return 5β15% below their original list price. Buyers tracking the market closely can identify these re-entries early and negotiate from a position of knowledge.
Overpricing Is Now Expensive
The data is unambiguous: sellers who priced aggressively in 2026 paid for it with time, reductions, and concessions. The average sale-to-original-list-price ratio dropped to 93.5%, meaning those who over-reached ended up netting less than sellers who priced accurately from day one. Properties with 100+ cumulative days on market are negotiating from a position of weakness by the time they close β if they close at all.
Correct Pricing Still Produces Strong Results
Nine of the 18 MLS sales in 2026 closed at 96% or better of list price β including two that sold above ask. The homes that performed: properly prepared, accurately priced, and professionally marketed. The market is not broken. It is simply less forgiving of shortcuts. Sellers who invest in preparation and price with precision are still winning.
The $8Mβ$10M Segment Is Stalling
Multiple properties in the $8Mβ$10M range have now failed twice or more, including the same address attempting three separate MLS listings. This suggests a supply/demand mismatch at the upper end β sellers benchmarking against peak comps while buyers in this range have more options and more patience. Anyone considering listing above $8M in 2026 needs a sophisticated pricing and marketing strategy, not just a premium list price.
Where the Market Is Moving
Not all price points are performing equally. Here's a snapshot of market conditions by price band based on 2026 data.
| Price Range | 2026 Activity | Condition | Notable Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2M β $3.5M | 4 sold Β· 0 expired | Active | Cleanest segment; 2 sold at 100%+ of ask. Fastest absorption. |
| $3.5M β $5M | 8 sold Β· 3 cancelled | Mixed | Best results for well-prepared homes; weakest results for overpriced inventory. |
| $5M β $7M | 4 sold Β· 7 cancelled | Contested | Highest ratio of failed listings. Buyer resistance above $5.5M without strong differentiation. |
| $7M β $10M | 1 sold Β· 8 cancelled/expired | Slow | Multiple repeat cancellations. Sellers anchored to 2024β25 peak pricing. Buyers are patient. |
| $10M+ | 1 sold ($13.5M off-mkt) Β· 2 cancelled | Off-Market Driven | Successful ultra-luxury deals bypass MLS entirely. On-market $10M+ inventory struggling to find buyers. |
Deals Worth Understanding
A handful of 2026 sales stand out as instructive β both for what succeeded and what the market rejected.
9001 NE 14th St β Sold $13,500,000
The largest closed sale of 2026 YTD. This 8,000 sq ft Clyde Hill estate on nearly 24,000 sq ft sold after 178 days at 79% of its $17M original ask β a $3.5M reduction to find a buyer. A reminder that even exceptional properties require realistic pricing to close.
9703 NE 14th St β $5.6M Off-Market
A 2025-built Clyde Hill home sold quietly off-market at full price in January 2026 β zero days on market, zero negotiation. No competing offers needed, no public listing exposure. This is the consistent pattern in off-market transactions: the right relationship between seller, buyer, and advisor eliminates every friction point in the transaction.
9633 NE 28th St β Listed $3.1M, Sold $3.17M
In just 3 days on market, this Clyde Hill home sold at 102.3% of list β one of 2026's strongest performances. Well-priced, well-prepared homes still attract immediate demand. Proper positioning is the strategy.
1322 91st Ave NE β Sold at 74% of Original Ask
Listed at $8.9M, reduced to $7.55M, closed at $6.6M. After 59 days on market, the seller accepted a 26% discount from their original price. This is the cost of mispricing in the current environment β and the starkest cautionary tale in the 2026 data set.
Your Home Has a Story.
Let's Tell It Correctly.
Market intelligence is only valuable when it's applied. Whether you're considering a sale, evaluating the timing of a purchase, or simply want to understand what your home is worth in this evolving market β let's have that conversation.
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